Reduced 2013/14 beginning grain stocks tighten supplies

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Beginning global coarse grain stocks for 2013-2014 are cut 1.1 million tons this month to 153.3 million. Most of the drop is for China, down 2.4 million tons due to lower reported corn production in 2012-2013.

South Africa’s stocks are trimmed 0.1 million tons due to the strong pace of exports for 2012/13. Trade and consumption changes for 2012/13 reduce Mexico’s corn stocks and Nigeria’s sorghum stocks slightly. Partly offsetting the aforementioned declines are increased 2013/14 beginning stocks for Brazil, up 1.0 million tons due to increased corn production; Russia, up 0.2 million tons because of slowing 2012-2013 corn exports; and Uruguay, up slightly due to strong 2012/13 barley imports.

Total world coarse grain supplies projected for 2013-2014 are down 4.3 million tons this month to 1.40 billion, mostly due to reduced U.S. corn production. Foreign coarse grain supplies are down 1.2 million tons this month to 1.01 billion as reduced beginning stocks swamp a small production increase.

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