Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/2011 are raised this month as higher forecast production for corn and sorghum more than offset lower corn carryin, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Thursday. Beginning stocks for corn are projected 52 million bushels lower reflecting higher expected exports, corn use for sweeteners and starch, and a small reduction in projected imports for 2009/2010. Corn production for 2010/2011 is forecast 120 million bushels higher.
The survey-based yield forecast of 165.0 bushels per acre is up 1.5 bushels from last month's projection and 0.3 bushels above last year's record.
Domestic corn use for 2010/2011 is raised 30 million bushels reflecting higher expected corn use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher as tighter foreign supplies of wheat and coarse grains raise prospects for U.S. corn shipments. Despite higher production, ending stocks are projected down 61 million bushels at 1.3 billion, the lowest in 4 years. The season-average farm price is raised 5 cents on each end of the range to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel. Similar price increases are projected for the other feed grains.
Other 2010/2011 feed grains changes include higher sorghum and barley production with higher forecast yields. Sorghum feed and residual use is projected 15 million bushels higher with larger supplies. Sorghum exports are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected demand from Mexico.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2010/2011 are projected 10.6 million tons lower with reduced foreign production more than offsetting higher U.S. output. More than half of the reduction in foreign coarse grain production is for barley. Barley production is lowered 3.0 million tons for Russia as extended drought and extreme heat sharply reduce yield potential for spring barley.
Global corn production is lowered 0.8 million tons with Russia and Ukraine each lowered 1.5 million tons and EU-27 lowered 1.0 million tons. These reductions more than offset higher production in the United States. Global rye and oats production are lowered 1.3 million tons and 0.7 million tons, respectively, on reductions for Russia, EU-27, and Ukraine.
Global coarse grain imports are raised this month with increases for corn in China, EU-27, South Korea, and Israel, supporting higher expected corn feeding in each country. In EU-27. Coarse grain and corn ending stocks are both expected to remain well above their recent lows in 2006/07.