The estimate for total U.S. meat and poultry production for 2009 is reduced as lower beef and poultry output more than offset higher pork production, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report released today. Partly offsetting the expected lower beef production level is higher forecast pork production due to larger expected slaughter and higher carcass weights in the third quarter of 2009.
Poultry production is forecast slightly lower as higher second quarter broiler production is more than offset by weaker turkey production.
Changes in the meat production forecast for 2010 reflect tighter supplies of fed cattle. There are no changes to forecast in pork and poultry production for 2010 as lower feed prices provide some support to producers. Egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reduced because of lower expected beef shipments. Weak economic growth in 2009 and tighter beef supplies for both 2009 and 2010 are expected to result in lower exports. Broiler exports are raised slightly but turkey export forecasts are reduced. Pork forecasts are unchanged.
Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are lowered for 2009. Weak demand is pressuring prices. Prices for hogs and broilers are lowered for 2010, but cattle prices are raised as tighter fed
cattle supplies support prices.
Feed Grain Outlook
The report projects U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/2010 higher this month with sharply higher forecast corn production. Corn production for 2009/2010 is projected at 12.8 billion bushels, up 471 million as higher forecast yields more than offset a small reduction in harvested area. U.S. corn supplies are projected at a record 14.5 billion bushels, up 134 million from the previous record in 2007/2008.
Corn use for 2009/2010 is projected higher with rising supplies and lower expected prices. Despite reduced prospects for livestock production, feed and residual use is raised 100 million bushels with the higher yield and production expected to add to residual loss.
Food, seed, and industrial use is raised 100 million bushels with higher expected use for ethanol supported by favorable ethanol producer returns and strong incentives for ethanol blending. Exports are projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting reduced foreign production prospects and stronger expected import demand from Mexico and Taiwan.
The first survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production is 3.2 billion bushels, 61 million below the July projection, but 240 million bushels above last year’s crop. Soybean stocks are projected
at 210 million bushels, down 40 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced crush and exports.
Soybean and product prices are all increased this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009/2010 is projected at $8.40 to $10.40, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $260 to $320 per short ton, up $5.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32 to 36 cents per pound, up one cent on both ends of the range.
Read the full World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report.