Corn production for 2010 is forecast 496 million bushels lower at 12.7 billion bushels
as a 258,000-acre increase in harvested area is more than offset by a 6.7-bushel-per-acre reduction in yield, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report released Friday. As forecast, this year’s yield and production still would be the third highest on record. World corn production is lowered 6.4 million tons with the lower U.S. production.
Ending stocks for 2009/2010 are raised 322 million bushels based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate. Larger-than-expected carryout of old-crop corn combined with an unusually early start to this year’s harvesting suggest heavy new-crop corn use before the Sept. 1 beginning of the 2010/2011 marketing year.
Individual state harvest progress reports suggest that 600-700 million bushels of corn were harvested across the South, Southern Plains, and southern Corn Belt before Sept. 1.
Feed and residual use for 2010/2011 is projected 150 million bushels higher reflecting the expected impact of new-crop corn usage before Sept. 1 on indicated disappearance during the current marketing year. Exports are lowered 100 million bushels with tighter available supplies, higher prices, and increased competition from Argentina.
The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $4.60 to $5.40 per bushel, up 60 cents on both ends of the range.
A number of changes are made this month to 2009/10 corn usage with the biggest a 358-million bushel reduction in feed and residual use as indicated by the Sept. 1 stocks and small upward revisions to exports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use based on the latest available data.
U.S. oilseed production for 2010/2011 is projected at 102.8 million tons, down 2 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.408 billion bushels, down 75 million based on both lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is reduced 1.2 million acres to 76.8 million. The soybean yield is projected at 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels.
Prices for soybeans and products are all raised this month, supported by strong prices for corn. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/2011 is projected at $10.00 to $11.50 per bushel, up 85 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 to $330 per short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range.
The forecast of total U.S. meat production is raised for 2010 but lowered for 2011. The pork production forecast is reduced due to lower slaughter and slower growth in slaughter weights. Beef and broiler production forecasts for 2010 are raised as second half production is higher than previously expected.
Pork production for 2011 is lowered from last month as relatively high feed prices are expected to keep the growth in sows farrowing modest and dampen hog weights.
Read the full report.