USDA released its monthly Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates last Friday, estimating the national corn yield at 148.4 bushels per acre. That's one-half a bushel less the June forecast.
Carryout stocks for the 2007/2008 crop year increased based on ethanol plant delays having reduced that industry's demand. Also, USDA cited feed and residual use -- due to higher-than-expected corn stocks in the June 30 crop inventory report.
In all, the increase was 155 million bushel, which is absorbed by the 2008/2009 crop year, which increased from 673 million bushes in June, to 833 million bushels. That's 6.7 percent of the total projected usage, and 1.6 percent higher than USDA’s June estimated season-ending stocks-to-use ratio,
As for prices, USDA stepped up its season average farm price by 20 cents, up to $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel for corn. However, that new price estimate remains well below futures prices. This suggests the market is looking for stronger corn demand that USDA's report suggests.