Fourth-quarter pork and beef production is forecast higher on larger-than-expected October output, according to the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Tuesday.
Broiler production was raised due to higher-than-expected third-quarter production; forecast fourth-quarter production is unchanged from last month. Turkey production is decreased on weaker third-quarter production, and forecast lower fourth-quarter slaughter. Egg production is little changed.
Meat production for 2010 is lowered from last month as higher forecast beef production due to larger feedlot placements in 2009 is more than offset by lower forecasts for broilers and turkey. Broiler and turkey hatchery data point to a smaller than previously forecast expansion in 2010.
Red meat and poultry export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are raised. Beef exports are forecast higher for the last half of 2009 and for 2010 on a weak dollar outlook, and improved economic outlook next year. Poultry exports are raised for third-quarter 2009. Import forecasts for beef for both 2009 and 2010 are reduced reflecting lower expected beef supplies in Oceania.
Cattle price forecasts are unchanged for 2009 and 2010. The hog price forecast is raised for fourth quarter 2009, but is unchanged for 2010. Broiler prices are lowered for 2009 and 2010. The egg price forecast is increased slightly for 2009 as fourth-quarter prices have been higher than expected but the forecast is unchanged for 2010.
Read the full report.