The November forecast for feed grain production is 284.7 million metric tons, up 0.6 million from last month’s forecast. Increases in corn and sorghum production drive the gain in feed grain production. Projected use is increased due to increases in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and feed and residual disappearance. The supply gain is about double the increase in use, resulting in a higher projected carryout.
Domestic 2012/13 feed grain utilization is projected at 265.5 million tons up from 265.0 million last month, but 24.2 million below last season. Feed and residual is increased 0.1 million tons from last month due to larger sorghum supplies. FSI use is raised 0.4 million tons to 155.5 million due to increased use of corn for high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and starch. Exports are unchanged from last month. Forecast feed grain ending stocks are raised 0.7 million tons with the larger supplies. A small downward adjustment in forecast prices reflects lower forecasts for corn and sorghum.
Minor changes are made for 2011/12 for feed grains reflecting revised data on ethanol production from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Imports increased and corn used for FSI increased. Feed and residual use and exports slipped.
Forecast Feed Use Lowered
On a September-August basis, 2012/13 feed and residual use for the four feed
grains plus wheat is projected to total 114.4 million tons, up from 114.0 million last month and 16.2 million below the adjusted total of 130.6 million for 2011/12. Corn
is estimated to account for 92 percent of feed and residual use in 2012/13, compared
with 88 percent in 2011/12, mostly due to lower expected wheat feeding year-toyear during the September-August period.
The projected index of grain consuming animal units (GCAU) in 2012/13 is 91.3
million units, down from an adjusted 92.6 million units in 2011/12. Feed and residual per GCAU is estimated at 1.25 million tons, down from 1.41 million in
2011/12. In the index components, GCAUs are decreased this month for cattle on feed. Despite little change in feed grain prices this month, total U.S. meat production is reduced from last month, largely reflecting lower beef and pork production.