CBOT soy outlook: Economic worries stoke fear of slower demand

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U.S. soybean futures are poised for a lower start, extending the trend of falling prices on fears a weak global economic outlook will dampen demand.

CBOT soybeans are called to open down 8 cents to 10 cents.

In overnight trading, Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures were down 8 cents or 0.6% at $12.50 a bushel.

Prices slumped to a new low for the year overnight, with the most active November contract down more than $2.00 a bushel from the Aug. 31 high of $14.65 a bushel.

The influence of external financial markets will have a strong impact on prices amid renewed worries of the world's economic outlook.

"Traders and analysts continue to revalue what the real price for soybeans are amid fear of slumping demand," Don Roose, president of Iowa based brokerage U.S. Commodities, said.

Soybeans are fundamentally undervalued and deeply oversold, but with South American production capable of buffering any U.S. supply tightness, global economic fear will continue to limit buying, Roose said.

Seasonal harvest weakness will add to the lower price theme, as traders brace for an influx of freshly harvested U.S. soybeans to enter the supply chain in the next month.

Industry analysts anticipate traders will remain hesitant to add risk, as they anxiously await actual yield results from the autumn harvest.

Yet, soybean futures should draw support from traders covering some recently sold positions ahead of Friday's report on stocks in all positions as of Sept. 1 from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"Although a rally into the report would make sense, trying to catch the falling knife on these big price breaks is not advisable in most situations," MF Global broker Joseph Vaclavik wrote in a morning market note.

Demand from users of soybeans could help slow the decline in prices, particularly with China, the world's top importer of the oilseed buying U.S. supplies on the price break last week.

The USDA on Monday is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 11:00 a.m. EDT and its weekly crop progress report at 4:00 p.m. EDT. Analysts anticipate federal forecasters will estimate the soybean harvest to be 10-12% complete.



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