Total U.S. meat production for 2011 is projected to be slightly higher
than 2010 as increased pork and poultry production more than offset
declines in beef production. Beef production for 2011 declines on
tighter supplies of cattle. Declining cow inventories and calf crops
over the past several years, coupled with expected lower imports of
cattle during 2011 will result in a smaller pool of cattle available for
slaughter. Pork production for 2011 is expected to increase as
improved returns encourage increased sows farrowing and carcass weights
are heavier. Both broiler and turkey production for 2011 are forecast
higher as producers respond to improved returns. Egg production is
forecast higher as production gradually builds upon the measured
expansion currently underway.

The total meat production forecast
for 2010 is reduced from last month as lower red meat production more
than offsets higher broiler and turkey production.



Forecast beef production is reduced as slightly higher cattle slaughter
is offset by expected lighter cattle weights. The pork production
forecast is reduced as supplies of hogs for slaughter are tighter than
expected. Broiler production is raised as improved returns are expected
to encourage increased hatchery activity. The turkey production
forecast for the first half of the year is raised based on the most
recent slaughter data.


Despite an improved world economy, U.S. beef exports for 2011 are
expected to be lower as U.S. production declines and more competitor
beef becomes available. Pork and broiler exports are expected to
benefit from an improved global economic climate and increased U.S.
production. Beef imports are expected to be higher for 2011 as U.S. cow
slaughter declines in response to lower cow inventories. Pork imports
are forecast higher with relatively strong U.S. pork demand.

The
2010 red meat export forecast is little changed from last month with
fractionally higher beef exports reflecting the pace of trade to date.
Pork exports are unchanged. Beef imports are forecast lower as
competitor supplies of beef are tight and global beef demand is
improving with the economic recovery. Broiler exports are forecast
lower than last month on weaker shipments to several markets.


For 2011, cattle prices are forecast to rise as demand improves and
production declines. Hog prices are forecast lower due to increased
production. Broiler and egg prices are also forecast higher on demand
strength carried over from 2010. Turkey prices will be slightly lower
in 2011.

Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts for 2010 are
raised from last month as demand improves and supplies are tight.
However, turkey and egg price forecasts are reduced.



Source: USDA/WASDE