USDA lowers 2013, 2014 pork production forecasts

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The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are lowered from September.

Pork production is reduced from last month based on third-quarter data and a lower-than-expected pace of slaughter in October and early November.

The pork production forecast is reduced for 2014. In the September "Hogs and Pigs" report, producers indicated intentions to expand sows farrowing through early 2014 and increases in farrowings during 2014 will likely be supported by moderating feed costs. However, the 2014 pork production forecast has been tempered by continuing reports of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) outbreaks.

Pork exports are reduced from September based on the pace of exports and lowered for 2014 on slightly weaker demand in Asia.

Hog prices for both 2013 and 2014 are raised on tighter-than-expected supplies and firm demand.

 

For 2013, the beef production is nearly unchanged as a lower third-quarter estimate is largely offset by higher expected fourth-quarter production. For 2014, the beef production forecast is reduced slightly from September on lower placements of cattle in feedlots during 2014.

Beef imports are reduced for 2013 as based on the current pace of imports with the lower level carried through into 2014. Despite lower U.S. beef production, which would increase demand for imports, global supplies are tight and demand by competing importers is expected to limit growth in U.S. imports. Beef exports are higher for 2013 based on the strength of shipments to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged from September.

Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are raised from September as demand for fed cattle is strong. 



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