U.S. 2012/13 corn export prospects cut as global trade boosted

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World corn trade in 2012-2013 is forecast up 0.3 million tons this month to 97.8 million. India’s corn exports are forecast up 0.8 million tons to 4.8 million as domestic demand is reduced and the export pace has exceeded expectations.

EU corn exports are increased 0.5 million tons to 1.5 million based on the pace of export licenses and shipments. South Africa’s exports are boosted 0.2 million tons to 1.9 million based on the pace of shipments. Mexico’s corn exports are increased slightly to 0.2 million tons based on the pace of recent shipments. However, the pace of Russia’s corn shipments has slowed, reducing forecast exports 0.3 million tons to 2.0 million.

The pace of U.S. corn exports and old-crop sales in recent weeks has been exceptionally slow. U.S. prices are high compared to competitors, and it is reportedly difficult to find uncommitted corn in big enough volumes to put together vessel-sized shipments for export.

Forecast 2012-2013 U.S. exports are cut 1.0 million tons this month to 18.5 million (for the September-August local marketing year, the export forecast is cut 50 million bushels to 700 million).

Census data indicate corn exports of 10.7 million tons for October 2012 through April 2013. May export inspections were 1.4 million tons, and outstanding sales at the end of May were 3.4 million tons, less than half of the previous year. U.S. corn exports for the final 4 months of the trade year are forecast to average 1.6 million tons.

World barley trade in 2012-2013 is forecast fractionally higher this month, with increased exports for India and small increases in imports for Syria, Uruguay, and Switzerland. Global sorghum trade for 2012-2013 is reduced slightly this month, with Nigeria’s exports zeroed out and Niger’s imports reduced. Forecast world oats and rye trade for 2012-2013 are unchanged this month.



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