Hog Outlook: PEDv cases surpass 1,100

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The average retail price of pork during October was record high for the second consecutive month. At $3.809 per pound, the average grocery store pork price was up 1.7 cents from the month before and up 32.5 cents from a year ago.

Retail pork demand was up 1.6 percent during September. This was the ninth consecutive month with demand above the year-earlier level. Export demand for U.S. pork was up 1.7 percent during September.

EPA has proposed lower targets for 2014 biofuels production. If it becomes the final rule, then 2014 production of ethanol from corn might be close to 13 billion gallons rather than the 14.4 billion gallons implied by the original Renewable Fuels Standard.

Iowa State University estimates the typical Iowa hog was sold at a profit of $3.26 in October, which was the fifth consecutive profitable month. The breakeven price of $66.88/cwt, was down for the ninth consecutive month and was the lowest since June 2012.

Testing data from the National Animal Health Laboratory Network says that as of November 10, the PED virus has been confirmed in 1,161 swine premises in 19 states. This is an increase of 92 locations from the week before. The number of new cases has set new records each of the last five weeks. Five states have more than 30 cases: Iowa 355, Oklahoma 227, North Carolina 205, Kansas 115, and Minnesota 77. There is an unknown amount of double counting in this data.

Hog prices were $1 to $3 lower this week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $77.16/cwt, down $1.69 from seven days ago, but up $5.09 from a year ago. The eastern corn belt had a morning carcass price of $75.82. Iowa-Minnesota had a morning price average of $78.25/cwt. The western corn belt averaged $78.11/cwt. Both Peoria and Zumbrota had a live price top this morning of $54/cwt. The top price for interior Missouri live hogs Friday was $55/cwt, down $2.25 from the previous Friday.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.345 million head, down 0.1 percent from the week before, but up 13.5 percent compared to the same week last year, which included Thanksgiving. Hog slaughter weights in Iowa-Minnesota set a new record for the third consecutive week. The average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 281.2 pounds, up 0.4 pounds from a week earlier and up 7.3 pounds from a year ago.

Friday morning's pork cutout value based on mandatory price reporting was $89.58/cwt FOB plants, down $3.14 from the week before, but up $7.66 from a year ago. This morning's hog prices averaged 86.1 percent of the cutout value.

The December lean hog futures contract settled at $85.62/cwt today, down 28 cents from the previous Friday. February hog futures ended the week at $89.67/cwt, down 60 cents from the week before. April hogs gained 55 cents to close at $92.45.



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