Crop reports and prices

A USDA analysis released this week offers historic data on what happens to grain prices following the release of the agency’s Crop Production and Grain Stocks reports. The analysis covers 1985 through 2010, and shows a fairly equal distribution of price movements either up or down following reports.

For corn, on the day following release of Crop Production reports, prices increased 54 times, stayed the same 18 times and decreased 58 times. One week after the reports, corn prices had increased 67 times, stayed the same once and decreased 62 times.

For the day following Grain Stocks reports, corn prices increased 47 times, stayed the same seven times and decreased 55 times. One week after Grain Stocks reports, corn prices went up 52 times, were unchanged five times and decreased 52 times.

For soybeans, the trend was similar following Crop Production reports, with the number of upward or downward price swings about equal the day after and one week after the reports. The trend was somewhat different after Grain Stocks reports, with soybean prices the next day increasing 46 times, staying the same 2 times and decreasing 61 times. One week following the reports, soybean prices were up 46 times, unchanged once and lower 62 times.

Read the full report online.