U.S. soybean futures are poised for a higher start to Wednesday's day session, as traders guard against the potential for government acreage forecasts to fall short of levels needed to rebuild tight old crop inventories.
In overnight trading, Chicago Board of Trade May soybean futures, the most active contract was up 3 1/4 cents at $13.64 3/4. New crop November futures were up 3 cents at $13.57 1/4. Analysts expect soybeans to open 2-4 cents higher.
Government planting and stocks data scheduled for release Thursday will affect market sentiment, encouraging money managers to take profits and add positions for their end of the month and quarter statements, analysts said.
Traders and analysts will closely watch government forecasts, as they try to determine whether U.S. farmers will plant enough acres to replenish tight U.S. supplies and keep pace with strong world demand, said Jerry Gidel, analyst with North America Risk Management Services.
U.S. Department of Agriculture will release is prospective planting and quarterly grain stocks reports Thursday, 8:30 a.m. EDT.
The average of estimates from 21 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires project 2011 U.S. soy acreage at 76.969 million acres, down from 2010 acreage of 77.4 million and below USDA's baseline projection of 78 million forecast in February.
Soybeans have precariously low projected end-of-year supplies forecast, making it important for farmers to produce large production in 2011 to replenish stocks in the face of strong global demand.
Concerns rainfall in northern Brazil will further delay harvests and potentially produce yield losses from wet conditions in northern areas are expected to buoy prices as well.
However, U.S. export news remains quiet this week, as the selling season out of the U.S. finally appears to be winding down, said Bryce Knorr, analyst with Farm Futures. The latest private estimates of production from Brazil keep output at strong levels, despite heavy rains in recent weeks, he added.
Meanwhile, beneficial rains for double-cropped soybean acres in Argentina are seen lending some price pressure.
Soyoil futures, a product of soybeans, is expected to lend support to soybeans, as strong global vegoil demand underpins the market. World vegoil futures were higher overnight, with Malaysian palm oil futures rising on indications that demand is improving.
Chinese edible oil prices are firm on the back of high imported soybean costs. Prices of Chinese vegetable oils must correct higher, as crushers have demonstrated greater willingness to hike prices and may lobby the government to ease price controls, an analyst at a Chinese trading firm told Dow Jones Newswires.