USDA’s Feed Grain Outlook report, released Sept. 15, reflects forecasts for higher U.S. corn and sorghum production, but also projects reductions in global production and high demand.
The agency projects total U.S. feed grain production for 2009-2010 to reach 344.8 million metric tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons from last-month’s report and up 18.9 million tons from 2008-2009.
Corn and sorghum production estimates are up from last month, but the agency reduced its projection for beginning stocks by 900,000 tons from last month. The report projects U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009 - 2010 at a record 394.6 million tons, up 4.2 million from last month and up 20.7 million from last year due to a record forecast corn yield.
The report also forecasts higher feed grain use during the 2009-2010 marketing year, increasing the total by 3.8 million tons over last month to a record 349 million tons. Total use is up 22.3 million tons from 2008/09.
The agency expects feed use, residual use and exports to increase, accounting for the increased use projections. Grain production internationally is down this year, particularly for corn, offsetting the increase in U.S. production. With high global feed-grain demand and reduced competition from other exporting countries, the USDA expects corn exports to increase during the 2009 – 2010 marketing year.
The agency reduced its projected corn ending stocks for 2008 - 2009 by 25 million bushels from last month to 1.695 billion, with feed, seed and industrial use, particularly for ethanol production, accounting for virtually all the increase.
Reflecting increasing supplies with the new crop, USDA reduced its projected corn price for the 2009 - 2010 crop by 25 cents on the high end of the range, and 5 cents on the low end of the range to $3.05 to $3.65 per bushel. For the 2008 – 2009 crop, the agency projects a season average farm price of $4.08 per bushel.
The full report is available from USDA.