Table 13 shows the cumulative percentage of operations that will stay in business at various live hog price levels. Table 14 is the cumulative distribution of annual hog marketings rather than the number of operations. The table confirms the obvious – the cure for low prices is low prices. With a $2.50-per-bushel central Iowa corn price, we begin to lose 5 percent to 10 percent of the production when prices drop below $45, indicating that at lower hog supplies, prices will rebound.
In rough numbers, a 10-cent change in corn price translates to about 50-cent per hundredweight in pork production costs. It currently looks like corn prices will be closer to $2 a bushel than $2.50. The 50-cent lower corn price would reduce the "stay-in price" by about $2.50 per hundredweight.