USDA updated acreage estimates in several States based on administrative data, bringing total corn planted area to 86.9 million acres, down 68,000 acres from the August forecast. Grain acres harvested and to be harvested is forecast at 79.2 million acres, down 93,000 acres from the previous forecast. If realized, area harvested for grain will be the second largest on record since 1944, behind the 86.5 million acres harvested last year.

The Oct. 1, corn objective yield indicated number of ears per acre is the highest on record for the combined 10 objective-yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). Record high ear counts are forecast in all objective-yield states except Kansas and Nebraska.                             

As of Sept. 28, 61 percent of the corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last month but 2 points lower than a year ago.  Regionally, corn condition ratings were lower than last month across the Ohio Valley and eastern Corn Belt as dry conditions continued to adversely affect the late developing corn crop. Conditions also declined in the middle Mississippi Valley where excessive moisture and high winds from Hurricanes Gustav and Ike stressed the crop. Crop conditions improved slightly or remained unchanged in the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley as late September rains brought much needed moisture to the region.

Corn development progress continued to lag behind normal due to the slow early season planting pace and cooler than normal temperatures during much of the growing season. On Sept. 21, one-third of the corn acreage was rated mature and beyond compared with 76 percent last year and 63 percent for the 5-year average. States in the upper and middle Mississippi Valley were more than 35 points behind their normal pace while states in the central and northern Great Plains were between 24 and 33 points behind.

Corn harvest gradually began progressing northward from the southern Great Plains, and was just getting underway in the Corn Belt and the northern half of the Great Plains by September's end. Overall, the corn harvest was 9 percent complete on Sept. 28, down 20 points from last year's pace and 12 points behind the average.  Progress was behind schedule in all states except Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Missouri, at 17 percent harvested, trailed its average pace by 43 points while Kansas and Illinois lagged its average pace by 28 points.


Corn Supply & Demand Estimates (Balance Sheet)

 

 

2008/2009

 

Corn

2007/2008

Sept.

Oct.

    Change

Area  Planted (Million acres)

93.6

87.0

86.9

-0.1

Area Harvested (Million acres)

86.5

79.3

79.2

-0.1

Yield Per Acre (Bushels)

151.1

152.3

154.0

1.7

Beginning Stocks (Million Bushels)

1,304

1,576

1,624

48

Production (Million Bushels)

13,074

12,072

12,200

128

Imports (Million Bushels)

18

15

15

0

Total Supply (Million Bushels)

14,396

13,663

13,839

176

Feed & Residual

(Million Bushels)

5,999

5,200

5,350

150

Food, Seed & Ind. (Million Bushels)

4,338

5,445

5,335

-110

Ethanol For Fuel (Million Bushels)

3,000

4,100

4,000

-100

Exports (Million Bushels)

2,435

2,000

2,000

0

Total Use (Million Bushels)

12,771

12,645

12,685

40

 

 

 

 

Ending Stocks (Million Bushels)

1,624

1,018

1,154

136

 

 

 

 

Avg. Farm Price

$4.20

$5.00 - $6.00

$4.20 - $5.20

 

Prepared By:  Rob Cook, CattleNetwork