USDA will release it's June Hogs & Pigs Report today at 3 p.m. (CDT). It's worth noting up front that the survey was conducted as of June 1 — before the Midwest flooding and the record run up in corn and other feed prices.
The general trade expectation is that there will be plenty of pigs coming to market this summer and fall. Dow Jones surveyed nine analysts and found, on average, they look for total inventory of hogs and pigs to be 65.64 million head, up 4.6 percent from the same time last year. That would be the largest June inventory since 1971.
While there's general agreement that the breeding herd is on the decline, the average estimate is for it to be down 1.4 percent from June 2007.
The analysts project market hog inventories to be 5.1 percent higher than a year ago. Specifically, the category of hogs weighing 120 pounds or more on June 1 is estimated to range from 5.6 percent to 9 percent higher than in 2007. They also look for hog supplies in the fourth quarter to be 2 percent higher than last year's record setting level.
These expectations are important as the market builds the analysts' numbers into the equation ahead of the report. The market will react accordingly based on how close USDA's report is to the pre-report estimates.