The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month on lower beef, pork and turkey production. Beef production is lowered as steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter was lower than expected. The lower second quarter slaughter more than offsets higher forecast slaughter in the second half of the year. The pork production forecast is reduced, largely on a reduction in fourth-quarter slaughter.
USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that despite a record number of pigs per litter in MarchMay, the pig crop for that period was only fractionally above year-earlier. Turkey production is lowered as hatchery data points toward sharper declines in second-half production. The broiler production forecast is unchanged.
Egg production is raised on higher table and hatching egg production. For 2014, the red meat and poultry production forecast is higher based on larger pork production. Pork production increases are driven primarily by gains in pigs per liter as producers have indicated intentions to only gradually expand farrowings in the second half of 2013.
Beef and pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged. The beef import forecast is lowered for 2013 and 2014 due largely to expected tight supplies in Oceania. Pork imports are raised slightly for 2013 and 2014. Broiler and turkey exports for 2013 are raised on the current strength of trade. Forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.
The cattle price forecast for 2013 is lowered from last month as prices have weakened recently. The 2014 price forecast is lowered for the first half of the year. Hog prices are raised as demand strength carries from 2013 into 2014, but price gains will be limited by higher production. Broiler prices are higher as strong demand is expected to support prices in 2014. Turkey prices are down slightly for 2013 while 2014 is unchanged. Egg prices are raised for 2013 on relatively strong demand.