According to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE), the forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is raised slightly as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets lower beef production.
The recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated a small decline in the June-August pig crop and indicated that producers intend to reduce farrowings through early 2013, but it is expected that continued growth in pigs per litter will mitigate much of the decline in farrowings.
Pork exports are unchanged for 2012, but are raised slightly on expected late 2013 improvements in sales. Imports are reduced slightly for 2013. Poultry export forecasts are unchanged for both 2012 and 2013.
Lower expected cattle placements in the third quarter will manifest itself as slightly lower supplies of fed cattle in early 2013. Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based on a slower pace of imports from Canada, but are unchanged for 2013. Beef exports are unchanged for 2012 and 2013.
The forecast for 2013 poultry production is raised slightly. For 2012, the total meat production forecast is reduced on lower beef and broiler production forecasts, although pork and turkey are forecast higher. Egg production is forecast higher for both 2012 and 2013 based on hatchery data.
Only small changes are made to 2012 livestock and poultry prices, generally reflecting small adjustments to fourth-quarter prices. Cattle and hog prices for 2013 are unchanged, but the broiler price is tightened at both ends of the range and the turkey price is lowered at the high end of the range.