WASDE: Corn yield adjusted lower

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U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 400.5 million tons, up 25
percent from 2012/13 with higher area and yields expected for corn, sorghum, and oats. Corn production for 2013/14 is projected at 14.1 billion bushels, up 3.4 billion from 2012/13 when extreme drought and heat reduced yields to their lowest levels since 1995/96.

The 2013/14 corn yield is projected at 158.0 bushels per acre, 5.6 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February (www.usda.gov/oce/forum/presentations/Westcott_Jewison.pdf). The slow start to this year’s planting and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind the 10-year average reduce prospects for yields.

Corn supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 14.9 billion bushels, up 3.0 billion from 2012/13. U.S. corn use for 2013/14 is projected up 16 percent from 2012/13 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for ethanol, sweeteners, and starch, and a partial recovery in exports. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is projected up 925 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices.

Projected corn use for ethanol is increased 250 million bushels from this month’s higher projection for 2012/13. Lower corn prices and high prices for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINS) support profitability for ethanol producers. U.S. corn exports for 2013/14 are projected 550 million bushels higher than this month’s lower projection for 2012/13.

At the projected 1.3 billion bushels, 2013/14 exports are expected to rebound from their lowest level since 1970/71. An expected fourth straight year of record foreign corn production with large crops in South America and the FSU-12 will provide substantial competition for the United States. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.0 billion bushels, up 1.2 billion from 2012/13.

The season-average farm price at $4.30 to $5.10 per bushel is down sharply from the record $6.70 to $7.10 for 2012/13. Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected at a record 1,407.6 million tons, up 113.8 million from 2012/13. Global corn production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 965.9 million tons. Foreign corn production is up 23.5 million tons.

The largest increases are projected for the FSU-12, EU-27, and China, but large crops are again expected in 2013/14 for Brazil and Argentina.

Global corn trade is projected higher with increased imports for China more than offsetting a reduction for EU-27. Spurred by lower prices, smaller year-to-year import increases are projected for a number of countries. Exports are lowered for Brazil, India, and Argentina, but raised for Ukraine and EU-27. World corn consumption is projected at a record 936.7 million tons, up 72.8 million from 2012/13 with foreign consumption up 41.5 million.

Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected up 29.2 million tons on the year. At 154.6 million tons, stocks would be a 13-year high.



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