According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Pork production is unchanged. Beef production is reduced due to slightly lower cattle slaughter during the year and slower growth in carcass weights. Broiler production is forecast lower as sharper declines are expected in bird numbers during late 2011 and into 2012. Turkey production is raised as prices are expected to favor expansion during 2012. For 2011, beef and broiler production forecasts are reduced, but pork and turkey production is increased. Egg production is forecast higher in the last quarter of 2011 and for 2012.
The beef import forecast is raised slightly for 2011. Beef export forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are raised slightly as strong global beef demand supports continued gains in U.S. exports to a number of Asian markets. Small changes are made to U.S. pork imports for 2011 and 2012 and pork exports for 2011. Broiler exports are raised for 2011 and 2012 on strong demand in a number of countries and a relatively weak dollar.
Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2011 and through 2012. Strong demand is expected to carry into next year along with tight cattle supplies. Hog prices are raised for 2011 and 2012 on demand strength and support from lower beef and broiler production. Broiler prices are lowered for the last quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 as weakness in domestic demand and current overhanging supplies pressure prices.