According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the forecasts for 2012 and 2013 meat and poultry production are reduced from last month as lower expected pork and poultry production more than offsets a higher beef production forecast.
The pork production forecast for 2012 is reduced due to a slightly slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lower carcass weights in the second half of the year. Pork production is reduced for 2013 as carcass weights are tempered. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 28, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2013.
Beef production is raised in 2012 as higher fed beef and cow slaughter is forecast.
The 2013 forecast is raised as higher forecast placements in second-half 2012 will result in larger fed cattle supplies in the first part of 2013.
Broiler production is reduced in both 2012 and 2013 as producer returns are expected to be pressured by higher soybean meal prices. Turkey production is raised fractionally for 2012, but the forecast for 2013 is reduced as soybean meal prices are forecast higher.
Egg production is forecast lower for both 2012 and 2013 as hatching egg production is expected to reflect reduced demand from the broiler sector. Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based on the current pace of imports, but are unchanged for 2013. Beef exports are unchanged for 2012, but the forecast for 2013 is lowered as supplies will remain relatively tight and tighter poultry supplies are expected to support domestic demand.
Pork exports are reduced for both years on weaker expected demand from Asia. Poultry export forecasts are unchanged for both 2012 and 2013.
Cattle prices for 2012 are raised from last month on stronger second-half demand, but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged despite higher forecast production as demand remains relatively strong.
Pork prices for 2012 are forecast lower, largely reflecting current prices, but prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month. Broiler price forecasts are raised for both years as supplies are lower.
Turkey and egg prices are forecast lower for 2012, reflecting current prices; forecasts for 2013 are unchanged.