Reduced corn prospects takes USDA grain exports forecast down

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The USDA lowered its fiscal 2013 forecast for grain and feed exports by $4.3 billion from it’s November prediction according to the latest USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

The new expectation for this year's grain exports is set at $32.8 billion with the reduction coming largely in wheat and corn. Fiscal 2013 corn export expectations are at a record level despite decreasing by almost $3 billion since the November report. Tight supplies and increased competition from Brazil and Argentina explain the dip in the forecast. According to the USDA Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, Corn exports are expected to reach $7.8 billion.

Wheat exports also declined, falling $1.4 billion from November to $10.2 billion. Wheat export expectations were reduced due to intensified competition from Northern Hemisphere exporters.

Oil seed and product exports got a bump in the latest report with a forecast of $32.4 billion, up $1 billion from November. Soybean and soybean meal prices, despite some softening, remain near record highs, while oil prices maintain their strength. Strong demand from China has helped maintain soybean export volume despite very tight supplies, though forecast value declined marginally from the November forecast.

The fiscal 2013 export forecast for livestock, poultry, and dairy is raised $300 million to a record $30.1 billion. Read more about the beef forecast here.

The total fiscal 2013 agricultural exports are forecast at $142 billion. The expectation is $3 billion lower than the November forecast, but $6.2 billion above 2012 export levels.



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