According to the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report, hog prices are forecast higher for both 2011 and 2012 as stronger export demand in both years support prices. Small changes are made to the 2011 forecast of total red meat and poultry production.
The pork production forecast is lowered due to the expected short-term effect of recent hot, humid weather on third-quarter hog weights. For 2012, pork production is lowered as tight feed supplies pressure hog weights.
Pork export forecasts are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favorable exchange rate and relatively strong demand for pork in Asia are expected to boost exports. U.S. pork imports are reduced slightly in both years.
Beef production is reduced slightly. Although fed cattle slaughter is raised to reflect the large number of cattle placed in feedlots during the second quarter due to drought in the Southern Plains, second-half carcass weights have been reduced.
For 2012, beef production is reduced due to slower carcass weight growth and slightly lower later year slaughter.
Higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of later year marketings as cattle are kept on forage longer. Beef imports are forecast higher in 2011 as demand for processing meat remains relatively strong. Beef exports are raised for both 2011 and 2012. A favorable exchange rate is expected to support exports to a number of countries.
Cattle prices are forecast slightly lower for the third quarter but subsequent forecasts are unchanged. Broiler prices are lowered in both 2011 and in the first part of 2012 as supplies remain relatively large.
For the year, broiler production is unchanged from last month. Production in June was higher than expected which offsets a sharper expected decline in second-half production. Turkey production is raised as higher forecast turkey prices are expected to moderate the expected decline in second-half production. The egg production forecast is reduced slightly from last month.
Broiler production is forecast lower as the stronger second-half production declines carry into the first part of 2012. Turkey production is expected to grow more slowly as higher feed prices partly offset higher turkey prices. Egg production is reduced from last month on higher feed prices.
No change is made to broiler exports for either 2011 or 2012 but turkey exports in 2011 are expected to be slightly stronger.