High number of tornadoes expected in 2012

Don’t let the seemingly calm winter fool you - AccuWeather.com forecasters are expecting yet another above-average number of tornadoes this year.

Last year 1,709 tornadoes were reported, just short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004. To compare, last year’s tornadoes numbered well more than the annual average of 1,300 tornadoes.  It now ranks as the fourth most deadly tornado year ever recorded in the United States. 

A very strong La Niña – a phenomenon where the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator are below normal – resulted in a very strong jet stream last year. With a very strong jet stream comes severe weather. As with most La Niña years, “Tornado Alley” shifted to the east, spanning across the Gulf States and into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Though La Niña is considerably weaker this year, the AccuWeather team warns that 2012 could have above-average numbers of tornadoes thanks warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water. This heated water is a key component to the active severe weather season expected in 2012.  

"Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year," AccuWeather.com Exert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said regarding the difference in pattern.

The weakening La Nina is good news for the areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks last year. It’s highly unlikely that these same areas will be hit as hard again this year, though it is still possible for damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes to affect the Gulf States.

The Deep South, including the Gulf States and eastern Texas, is expected to get hit by severe weather early in the season, mainly in March. Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, expects the severe weather threat to reach the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys by early April.

"If I were in the South or Ohio Valley, I'd be extra prepared this year," Mike Smith, senior vice president of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions cautioned.