By now you’ve most likely read several commentaries on the accuracy of the USDA Hogs and Pigs report released last Friday afternoon. As most have suggested, while USDA numbers showed an impact of the PEDv on inventory numbers, did they capture all of the impact?
What is clear from the numbers is that expansion of the US herd has not occurred. While it is impossible from the inventory numbers to see future plans (other than as farrowing intentions) my industry contacts suggest limited increases in sow herd inventories this coming year. In addition to the angst caused by PEDv, many producers are using this years profits to improve their balance sheets after several years of very tough economic conditions.
Another reason for delay is the long lead time involved in increasing the breeding herd. With a 100 sow herd, adding 10 sows was a 10% increase in inventory and something that could often be done with no change in facilities. Today, the most common increases in breeding herd inventories require multiples of 2500 to 5500 females. In addition to the financial planning involved, this growth also involves zoning hearings for the new site, sourcing of a significant pool of new gilts, identification of a new labor pool, maybe establishment of a relation with a new feed mill if the unit is to be located in an isolated area at some distance from the current production facilities, etc.