U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3 million from last month due to lower soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production. Soybean production is projected at 3.149 billion bushels, down 106 million due to lower yield prospects, especially in the western Corn Belt. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.2 bushels per acre, down 1.4 from last month. Soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting reduced supplies and increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels to 1.655 billion reflecting lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 150 million bushels, down 70 million. Other changes for 2013/14 include reduced soybean oil production and exports. The 2012/13 supply and demand estimates include a 5-million-bushel increase in soybean imports to a record 40 million and a 5-million-bushel increase in crush. Ending stocks remain unchanged at 125 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.50 to $13.50 per bushel, up $1.15 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360 to $400 per short ton, up $55.00 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are projected at 43 to 47 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint as large global vegetable oil supplies pressure prices. Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 495.1 million tons, up 2 million from last month. Gains in foreign production more than offset lower forecasts for the United States.
Global soybean production is projected almost unchanged at a record 281.7 million tons as larger crop forecasts for Brazil and Paraguay mostly offset reductions for the United States, Canada, China, and Russia. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 88 million tons, up 3 million on increased area. Recent price strength and a weaker real are expected to provide incentives for soybean producers to increase area by 4 percent from last year. Soybean production for China is reduced 0.3 million tons to 12.2 million on lower yields resulting from excess rainfall and flooding in the northeast. If realized, this would be China’s smallest soybean harvest since 1992/93. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 41.8 million on higher forecasts for Ukraine and the European Union. Record production is forecast for Ukraine as favorable rainfall and temperatures in August and early September improved Ukraine yield prospects. Other changes include higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for the European Union, higher peanut production for India, and higher cottonseed production for Brazil and India.
Little change is expected for global soybean trade in 2013/14 as lower exports for the United States and Argentina are offset by higher exports by Brazil and Paraguay. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 81.2 million tons, up 0.5 million as gains for rapeseed and sunflowerseed more than offset lower soybean stocks.