USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates a 2005
In addition to increasing the forecast size of the 2005 harvest, USDA reduced the forecast of 2005-06 marketing year consumption by 13 million bushels. USDA projects marketing year
Soybean prices moved higher on Nov. 11 with cash prices approaching the pre-harvest levels as basis continued to strengthen in many markets.
“Based on the U.S. average farm price, the market is currently reflecting a 2005-06 marketing year average farm price of about $5.80, says Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension economist. “ That price is $.06 above the average price received in 2004-05 when year ending stocks were about 100 million bushels less than projected for this year.”
Overall, USDA projects the marketing year average price in a range of $4.95 to $5.75 and our composite model correlating the year ending stocks-to-use ratio to price projects a marketing year average near $5.25.
He contends that the soybean market appears to be a little over-priced based on current