A large U.S. crop is far from certain. Cool, wet spring weather delayed field work and corn planting in some areas. The crop will need good weather to produce a national average yield above 153 bushels per acre. Yield in 2006 was 149.1 bushels per acre.

Even with the expected increase in carryover stocks, corn supplies will remain tight, with little margin for error.

Corn prices are still well above $3 per bushel and are expected to remain there or higher for the next few years, unless yields run well above trend. This represents a shift that sets a new long-term price floor, similar to others seen following World War II and again in the 1970s.