Pork exports continued to grow from January to October 2002, according to John Lawrence, Iowa State University agricultural economist. This is a bit of a surprise, because 2001 export numbers were quite high, aided by the outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Europe.

In other export news, beef had strong gains over 2001, while poultry fell off sharply, primarily due to the Russian embargo this past spring and summer. Lawrence says the embargo hurt, because in 2001 prior to the ban poultry exports to Russia were 48 percent higher than total U.S. pork exports and about equal to total U.S. beef exports.

Here are the export numbers for U.S. pork, beef and poultry for the first three quarters of 2002.

 Meat

% change from 2001

 Pork

+3% 

 Beef

+7% 

 Poultry

-12% 



The export success of beef and pork seems fortunate, as the supplies of both meats continued to increase in January through October of 2002. Poultry had only a slight increase, down significantly from the usual 2 percent to 5 percent growth, says Lawrence. Here are the meat supply numbers for the first three quarters of 2002.

 Meat

% change from 2001

 Pork

+2.4% 

 Beef

+3.0% 

 Poultry

+0.5% 



Lawrence also shared his price forecasts with attendees of a seminar at Iowa Pork Congress. Lawrence makes predictions on changes in supply, price of live hogs and a price that there is a one-in-six chance that prices will fall that low. Lawrence encourages producers to look at the one-in-six price and ask themselves what they would do if the price reached those depths. Here are those numbers.

 Qtr.

Supply
(% change from 2001)

Price
$/cwt

1-in-6 price
$/cwt

 1

-0.5%

$36-$39

$33.50

 2

-1.5% 

$41-$44

$36.00

 3

-1.0%

$42-$45

$36.50

 4

-2.0% 

$35-$38

$27.50