This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2015/16 include lower beginning stocks, slightly higher crush, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect higher crush and export projections for 2014/15. Soybean crush for 2014/15 is raised 10 million bushels to 1,815 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal domestic disappearance which is partly offset by reduced exports of soybean meal. Higher soybean meal domestic disappearance reflects stronger-than-expected use for the marketing year to date. Soybean exports are projected at 1,810 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting outstanding sales and shipments through May. Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are reduced 25 million bushels to 475 million.

The 2015/16 season-average price for soybeans is projected at $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $305 to $345 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.9 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month. Soybean production for Russia is raised on higher area projections based on reported planting progress to date. Rapeseed production for EU is raised 0.5 million tons to 22.1 million on improved yield prospects. Other changes include increased soybean production for EU and reduced rapeseed production for Ukraine. Argentina soybean production for 2014/15 is raised 1 million tons to 59.5 million mainly on increased harvested area.

Global soybean supply and use changes include increased crush and lower stocks for both 2014/15 and 2015/16. Brazil’s soybean crush, meal production, and domestic disappearance for 2014/15 are raised based on recently released official data. With the lower stocks in Brazil only partly offset by higher stocks in Argentina, global soybean stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 93.2 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month. 

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, June 10, 2015