The grain markets were mixed to start the week after an action-packed week last week amid new government estimates and global currency challenges. Trade expectations for today’s crop progress report are that corn condition ratings will be down 1% to 69%. At 10:00 am today, the USDA will release data on weekly export inspections. Also this morning will be the release of Farm Service Agency acreage data from farmer certifications for farm programs could move the markets once again. September corn futures lifted 3 cents to $3.67/bushel early Monday morning, while December fell 2.75 cents to $3.7825.
The start of a new week found the oilseed complex stronger ahead of another week of potential market-moving data. 10:000 am will be the release of export inspections data and at 11:000 am NOPA will release the July crush report. The average trade estimate for how many soybeans U.S. soy processors crushed in July is 141.475 million bushels, according to Reuters. For today’s 3pm crop progress report, the trade expects that the soybean condition rating will slip 1% to 62%. September soybeans advanced 7 cents to $9.3275/bushel just after dawn Monday, while September soyoil rose .12 cents to 29.20 cents/pound and September meal gained $4 to $329.2/ton.
The wheat market traded lower early Monday morning after ending last week slightly higher. Chicago wheat has seen steady deterioration since early July but the report last week created some bullish sentiment on production estimates that weren’t as robust as expected. The crop progress report out today will help clarify and/or confirm whether 2015/16 supply expectations will be enough the outweigh what has largely been a bearish outlook due to poor exports and ample stocks. September CBOT wheat futures fell 0.5 cents to $5.06/bushel early Monday morning, while Sep KC wheat dropped 0.75 cents to $4.89/bushel, and September MWE eased 2.5 cents $5.16.
Live cattle futures dropped Friday after rebounding Thursday. The continued surge of cash cattle values did not help support futures Friday, despite choice cut-outs being up 1.07. Nearby futures traded just a half cent under the 50-day moving average while still trading about 4 cents under the 100-day. October cattle dropped .55 cents to 146.85 cents/pound as Fridays CME session wound down, while April futures dropped 0.12 cents to 147.32. Meanwhile, October feeder cattle futures edged lower 1.00 cents to 207.42 cents/pound, while January feeders lost 1.02 cents to 199.02.
Friday found the lean hog market higher at the close and over 2 cents higher for the week . Hog and pork traders have clearly been expecting surging hog supplies to depress the complex at this time, but prices continue to rise. The lean hog cash index has stayed surprisingly firm, pulling the expiring August contract upward, but still leaving the October contract at a steep discount to cash. It appears the industry is starting to see hog supplies more in line with the 7%-9% increases implied by the June USDA Hogs & Pigs report. October hog futures lifted .27 cents to 65.32 cents/pound, while February moved up 0.80 cents to 66.40.
The cotton market traded mixed early Monday morning after being one of the few commodities that emerged a winner in the supply report last week. Stronger than expected exports and lower than expect U.S. production have boosted the ICE futures in recent days despite the mostly downward movements over that past few months. The USDA reduced the estimate for the 2015/16 crop 13.08 million bales (480 lb) from 14.5 million bales causing a boost higher. The December contract is up over 5 cents after the near-term bottom of 61.82. December cotton futures lifted 0.12 centsto 66.07 cents/pound Friday, while May fell 0.01 cents to 65.58.