The grain and oilseed markets are neutral-lower early Tuesday morning beginning what may be a volatile day due to global news. China’s Shanghai composite index fell 6.2% Monday on fresh worries. The corn condition rating dropped 1%, as expected, to 69% good to excellent, and it is the first decline in four weeks with ratings lower mostly in the western Corn Belt. The overall weather outlook for the remainder of August is mostly bearish given the lack of extremes. September corn futures fell .75 cents to $3.6325/bushel Monday, while December fell 1 cent to $3.745.
The soy complex was decidedly lower in the overnight session despite much stronger than expected export inspections and the NOPA crush report came in with the third straight month of the largest ever crush. NOPA reported July crush above 145 million bushels, compared to the average trade estimate of 141.475 million. This beats the previous record for July of 142.6 million bushels set in 2006 and exceeds last July by 21%. The soybean crop rating held steady at 63%, although the trade expected a 1% drop. Strong ratings, mostly favorable weather, and Chinese economic uncertainty may put pressure on futures. September soybeans fell 6.25 cents to $9.2075/bushel early morning Tuesday, while September soyoil fell .24 cents to 28.82 cents/pound and September meal slid $1.4 to $324/ton.
Wheat futures weakened Tuesday morning as crop ratings came in positive in the USDA report. Spring wheat harvested came in at 53% vs the 31% five-year average and 28% last week. Spring wheat condition lifted by 1 point to 70% good to excellent, compared to 68% last year. EU wheat fell to two-month lows yesterday on the positive outlook for supply. Statistics Canada will release estimates this Friday at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Surveys forecast Canada’s wheat production will shrink to 25.6 million tonnes, the smallest in four years and down nearly 13% from last year. The survey also sees their canola harvest down to 13.6 million tonnes, the lowest in five years. September CBOT wheat futures fell 0.75 cents to $4.9975/bushel early Tuesday, while Sep KC wheat dropped 3 cents to $4.7925/bushel, and September MWE was up 0.25 cents $5.1325.
Live cattle futures traded mixed to start the week. The USDA Cattle on Feed report will be out this Friday at 2:00 p.m. CDT. Just about three weeks from Labor Day weekend and buying interest may at times get erratic as retailers forecast their inventory needs and begin to plateau purchases. Despite being down Monday, a tighter supply of Q4 feeder cattle may provide support in the near term. October cattle gained .72 cents to 147.70 cents/pound as Monday’s CME session wound down, while April futures climbed 0.07 cents to 147.42. Meanwhile, October feeder cattle futures edged lower 0.62 cents to 206.90 cents/pound, while January feeders lost 0.77 cents to 198.47.
A lean cash index that continues to stay firm helped lean hog futures higher Monday. Traders will monitor shifts in seasonal patterns in the coming weeks as holiday buying gets saturated and as hog inventories move toward a time of year when supplies are at their peak and when demand is traditionally lower. The USDA National Daily Direct afternoon hog report show cash hogs higher by 13 cents to 75.75. October hog futures lifted 1.12 cents to 66.27 cents/pound Monday, while February moved up 0.85 cents to 67.20.
The cotton market lost steam overnight after likely on profit taking and fund consolidation after rising last Wednesday, the day of the WASDE release, and each day since. Stronger than expected exports and lower than expected U.S. production have boosted the ICE futures in recent days despite the mostly downward movements over that past few months. The USDA reduced the estimate for the 2015/16 crop to 13.08 million bales (480 lb) from 14.5 million bales causing the price rally. December cotton futures fell 0.41 cents to 66.11 cents/pound early Tuesday morning, while May lost 0.55 cents to 65.85.