Corn futures firmed overnight after a stronger dollar pressured Dec futures to five-week lows, below the 20-day moving average of 3.80 on Monday, but above the contract low of 3.575. Next to perfect harvest weather will limit upside potential ahead of the expected bumper crop. Corn harvest progress was reported at 59% harvested, compared to 42% last week and the 54% five-year average. Corn export inspections data disappointed at 459,812 tonnes, compared to the estimate of 500,000-700,000 tonnes. The Shanghai Composite closed 1.1% higher Tuesday after Q3 GDP data was released Monday showing higher than expected growth but the lowest since 2009. S&P futures were lower overnight, down .31%. The dollar was lower and gold higher. December the corn futures moved 1.25 cents higher to $3.7425/bushel early Tuesday morning, while March moved 1.25 cents higher to $3.85.
The soy complex strengthened early Tuesday morning after closing above the 20-day moving average support level of 8.8775 Monday. Soybean crop progress came in at 77% complete, compared to 62% last week and the 68% five-year average. Weather forecasts for Brazil’s top soybean producing state, Mato Grasso, show potential for rains in the 6-10 day outlook. The state has also reportedly completed 14.3% of soybean harvest, compared to 9.3% this time last year. Malaysian palm oil gained 2% on weakness in their currency, the ringgit. The Argentine Peso hit an all-time low Monday, ahead of their presidential election this Sunday, Oct 25. November soybeans moved 4.25 cents higher to $8.95/bushel early Tuesday, while December soyoil gained 0.11 cents to 28.25 cents/pound and December meal lifted $1.6 to $312.40/ton.
Wheat futures were higher overnight after reaching 4-week lows Monday as forecast rains improved the outlook for the U.S. winter wheat crop. Russian wheat prices gained were up on increase demand following a cut to their export tax. Britain’s wheat crop was estimated down 2.6% from last year, according to their farm ministry, to 16.17 million tonnes, but above their previous estimate of 16.13 million. In the U.S., the improved weather outlook is poised to cause the 15/16 wheat stocks-to-use ratio to rise to six-year highs as the absence of drought fears in the Southern Plains will add to the already ample global supply picture. December CBOT wheat futures were 3 cents higher at $4.8875/bushel early Tuesday morning, while Dec KC wheat advanced 3 cents to $4.7525, and December MWE moved 2.5 cents higher to $5.095.
Live cattle futures traded higher Monday after surging over 2% Friday. Cash cattle firmness continued to lift futures higher with choice up 1.44 to 213.13 and select down 0.85 to 207.21. Dec cattle has broken above the 50-day moving average to find support above 141.27 and the next resistance level is at the 100-day average of 146.01. Cattle slaughter for the week was 112,000 head, compared to 112,000 head last week and 114,000 head this time last year. December cattle gained 2.10 cents to 141.65 cent/pound Monday, while February cattle lifted 1.45 cents to 143.02 cents/pound. November feeder cattle moved 1.80 cents higher to 192.15 cents/pound, while January feeders gained 1.45 cents to 183.97 cents/pound.
CME lean hog futures continued lower Monday after tumbling late last week in what appears to be the early stages of seasonal demand weakness, largely expected by the trade. Hog slaughter last week was the largest since Dec 2013 with total slaughter at 2.318 million head last week, compared to 2.290 million the prior week and 2.184 million last year. Cash hogs were 1.14 lower to 68.66. Nearby hog futures continue to trade at a significant discount to cash but that spread has narrowed as demand wanes heading into winter, likely causing the lean hog index to move lower. December hog futures gained 0.25 cents to 65.97 cents/pound Monday, while April hogs dropped 0.57 to 71.45.
ICE Cotton futures were higher overnight one-point decrease in the cotton condition rating. Cotton closed lower Monday and gained 3.3% last week. Cotton harvest progress came in at 31% versus 22% last week and the 32% five-year average. Lower crop condition ratings from recent SE rains, lower than expected exports, and a lower U.S. production estimate have been bullish for the crop that, globally, still faces a bearish supply outlook. Last Tuesday, news of the increased Chinese demand in the soy complex also drove the rise in the cotton trade as demand fears regarding the largest cotton consumer in the world subsided. December cotton futures gained 0.18 cents to 63.42 cents/pound early Tuesday, while May cotton edged 0.04 cents higher to 63.53.