This market update is a PorkNetwork weekly column reporting trends in weaner pig prices and swine facility availability.  All information contained in this update is for the week ended January 9, 2015.

Pricing off the July lean hog contract shows a weaner breakeven of $69.95, down $7.63 for the week as lean hog futures decreased $3.30 and feed costs were up $0.85 per head. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on January 9, 2015. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

For the Week Ended

1/9/2015

Weekly Change

Weaner pig breakeven

$69.95

($7.63)

Margin over variable costs

$91.78

($7.63)

Pig purchase month

Jan, 2015

Jan, 2015

Live hog sale month

Jun, 2015

Jun, 2015

Lean hog futures

$88.03

($3.30)

Lean hog basis/cwt

($1.90)

$0.00

Weighted average sbm futures

$346.50

$9.22

Weighted average sbm basis

($4.26)

($0.51)

Weighted average corn futures

$4.08

$0.04

Weighted average corn basis

($0.17)

$0.00

Nursery cost/space/yr

$35.00

$0.00

Finisher cost/space/yr

$40.00

$0.00

Feed costs per head

$79.55

$0.85

Assumed carcass weight

205

0.00

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations don’t take into account market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash traded weaner pig volume was below average this week with 23,530 head being reported which is 87 percent of the 52 week average. Cash prices were $66.81 down $9.98 from a week ago. The low to high range was $50.00 to $78.00.

 

Reported

Weekly change

Cash sale weaner pig volume

23,530

(9,350)

Weighted average cash price/head

66.81

($9.98)

Cash low price/head

$50.00

($17.00)

Cash high price/head

$78.00

($8.00)

The number of reported weaner pigs sold on a formula basis was 45,022 head at an average price of $48.43. That’s down $0.82 per head from the previous week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through January 9.

Graph 3 shows the estimated profit opportunity by comparing the weekly weaner cash price to the breakeven price.

Ryan Cooney is director of market development for NUTRIQUEST and general manager of ePigflow, a free online market for weaner pigs, feeder pigs and facility spaces. You can find available pigs and facilities by visiting www.epigflow.com.