This market update is a PorkNetwork weekly column reporting trends in weaner pig prices and swine facility availability.  All information contained in this update is for the week ended February 6, 2015.

Pricing off the August lean hog contract shows a weaner breakeven of $58.09, down 7.26 for the week as lean hog futures dropped $2.72 from last week and feed costs were up $1.65 per head. Breakeven prices are based on closing futures prices on February 6, 2015. The breakeven price is the estimated maximum you could pay for a weaner pig and breakeven when selling the finished hog.

For the Week Ended

2/6/2015

Weekly Change

Weaner pig breakeven

$58.09

($7.26)

Margin over variable costs

$79.92

($7.26)

Pig purchase month

Feb, 2015

Feb, 2015

Live hog sale month

Aug, 2015

Aug, 2015

Lean hog futures

$81.03

($2.72)

Lean hog basis/cwt

($1.66)

$0.00

Weighted average sbm futures

$323.46

($0.90)

Weighted average sbm basis

($1.33)

$0.00

Weighted average corn futures

$3.98

$0.15

Weighted average corn basis

($0.14)

$0.01

Nursery cost/space/yr

$35.00

$0.00

Finisher cost/space/yr

$40.00

$0.00

Feed costs per head

$77.76

$1.65

Assumed carcass weight

205

0.00

Note that the weaner pig profitability calculations provide weekly insight into the relative value of pigs based on assumptions that may not be reflective of your individual situation. In addition, these calculations don’t take into account market supply and demand dynamics for weaner pigs and space availability.

From the National Direct Delivered Feeder Pig Report

Cash traded weaner pig volume was above average this week with 28,050 head being reported which is 106 percent of the 52 week average. Cash prices were $48.67 down $7.47 from a week ago. The low to high range was $41.00 to $65.00. Weaner pigs sold on a formula basis were up $0.36 per head at $45.82. Cash traded feeder pig reported volume was below average with 5,685 head reported. Cash feeder pig reported prices were $72.74 down $0.47 per head from last week.

Graph 1 shows the seasonal trends of the cash weaner pig market. Cash prices are continuing their steep fall of the past 5 weeks.

Graph 2 shows the cash weaner price and cash feeder price on a weekly basis through February 6.

Graph 3 shows the estimated weaner pig profit by comparing the weaner pig cash price to the weaner breakeven. Estimated profit opportunity was $9.42 per head this week, up $0.21 from last week.

Ryan Cooney is director of market development for NUTRIQUEST and general manager of ePigflow, a free online market for weaner pigs, feeder pigs and facility spaces. You can find available pigs and facilities by visiting www.epigflow.com.